Showing posts with label India - China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India - China. Show all posts

Sunday, April 29, 2007

The Singapore Syndrome

Last week, I was hit again by the Singapore syndrome. Let me explain….I returned home after a short visit out and after a brief stay in Singapore on the way back. Every time I cross Singapore, its quiet efficiency never fails to amaze you. And after that, when you enter India – especially through Bangalore airport - you almost feel like you are in a third world banana republic; the contrast hits you hard - very hard, in spite of all the recent optimism about growth.

The first thing that strikes in the woefully small Bangalore airport is the baggage handling system that has been “upgraded” recently. It does not seem to have been designed by an engineer at all. It must have surely been a joint effort by a bureaucrat of the civil aviation ministry in technical collaboration with a local mechanic, and of course, purchased at lowest price after getting three quotations. It gets struck, spews out luggage all around, every corner is a bottleneck - nothing but smooth. Eventually the luggage arrives – ever so slowly. You may walk through the green channel; but your luggage doesn’t. In due course of time, they are let out into the baggage handling system after being checked by an ever suspicious customs staff through X Ray machines for god-knows-what they look for. No other country seems to do it - a green channel is a green channel. The scarcity mind set was over I thought !

After a long wait, I get out of the terminal. My son, who is standing in as a chauffer, has not made fast progress either. Now he and I try to solve a puzzle. He is on the airport road just 100 meters away trying desperately to find a way into the airport, with all entries jammed and I am struck at the terminal exit. It is 11:00 PM. Every spot is occupied. With a couple of international flights having just landed and people reaching the airport for all the mid night departures, it is a total mess. The roads inside are completely grid locked. There are cars as far as eye can see. It was a marathon effort just to get out of the airport. And when I eventually reach home, the power is not there. It keeps going and coming. Apparently, it was like that the whole day.

In the meanwhile, my mobile phone works well. I check my emails. I see good progress all around. My office seems to have done the job I wanted them to do. I get a good update on the new business we had started. The new bank we spoke to has come back fast offering funding. Venture investors are keen to invest in some of the new companies I am involved in. I cheer up.

But, everything that has something to do with the Govt. and its decision-making seem to be struck. The airport, roads, power, primary education, the list is long…. As often stated, we are a first world capability trapped inside a third world system.

Now, back to the Singapore syndrome… I often wonder if we could run our country like Singapore. It is run by a bunch of problem solvers rather than politicians. They run it as efficiently as they would run a company. Lee Quan Yew is a great visionary. He guided his city-state very well to where it has reached. Singapore is in a big boom again. The big Casino initiative is pumping confidence and billions of $ investments into the economy. Try talking to the Taxi driver; he will talk knowledgeably about everything - including the IT boom in Bangalore; he is well read and well mannered.

Most other Asian Tigers learnt from Singapore and built their own economies in a similar way – like a corporate, export led, foreign funded and manufacturing oriented; and all of them grew at a good pace in the last few decades while we grew at a much lower “hindu rate”. And the biggest copycat of Singapore was China. They just replicated the Singapore format in a massive scale, building a cumulative trade surplus exceeding $ 1.2 Trillion.

They are all, to varying degrees, “authoritarian” systems - mostly benevolent. The key is a set of people at the top with clear vision and with a mind to solve problems – Lee Quan Yew, Deg Xiao Ping, Mahathir Mohammad and others like them. Now and then one such leader gets tough and cracks the whip a bit hard. But, largely they have lifted their economies to new heights and their teeming millions out of poverty much faster than India. Putin’s autocratic Russia seems to have done far better than Yeltzin's free Russia. Yes, none of them cared much for democratic niceties. They exploited effectively and successfully the most fundamental characteristic of these cultures – the hierarchical system. Capitalism seems to get built faster in a hierarchical, disciplined population - easy to take tough decisions. Most ironically, capitalism seems to be thriving very well in a communist nation today. And the newest star is Vietnam.

We, on the other hand are very heavily influenced by the western notion of democracy and freedom. And, freedom and democracy in the hands of an argumentative Indian seems to result in a handicap. We are one of the very few countries in the world seriously building democracy before capitalism. It’s a much tougher option. When it takes 10 years for deciding the location of an airport, it is very frustrating. China’s SEZs rolled on relentlessly fast – far and wide. Our SEZs are sputtering along – struck at the anvil of difficult decision making. Indian power sector is getting liberalized for ages. Corruption is still rampant. And, how come after 50 years of democracy, 600 Million of our population can’t read the newspaper headlines and are practically illiterate. What is all the democracy worth if in 50 years, we could not give basic education for our masses? Nearly every one of the Asian countries seems to have done far better than us – many totalitarian ones better than others.

So, yeah, why not the Singapore way?

But, when I seriously consider it, I am not sure I want it that way.

We may be a chaotic nation. We may seem to move ever so slowly. But we have started moving. The East Asian Tigers copied much of the Singaporean growth model. By the mid 70s, the Chinese implemented the Singapore policies successfully. And, eventually, in 1992, pushed to the wall, we did copy a few of the concepts and finally discovered capitalism. Today, we are only 15 years old as an entrepreneurial nation. But now, we have tasted the power of entrepreneurial energy. We are not a homogeneous country like many others. We have a disparate nation. Multiple castes, religions, languages, cultures…. People need outlets, and democracy does give that. And all the chaos is finally leading somewhere. Pete Engardio of Businessweek in his engaging book CHINDIA points out what many are suspecting. India may just eventually overtake all others – China included. China grew at a 10% growth rate for two decades – but it was achieved with a massive infusion of funds. We have achieved growth at a far lower level of fund infusion – in other words we have been more capital efficient. India’s growth is in spite of the Government. The people drive it from below – far more sustainable. The quality of Indian entrepreneurs and companies are impressive. Indian industry has shown higher ROI and ROCE. India’s 16.8% is much better than China’s 12.8% for 2004. Indian savings rate is growing faster giving more funds for development. There are many who are ready to bet on India growing at a sustained steady rate of 6 to 7% far longer than any other country in history. The Tortoise has a good chance to overtake the Hare. Thousands of years of caste divided society has to go through the churn to get rid of that old baggage. It may be difficult without democracy – however unpalatable it may sound in the short term.

But Entrepreneurs hold the key. And there are less and less constraints on them today. And a recent Harward Study on business competitiveness rates India high. India has gone up to 27the Rank while China has been rated down to 64. The First world capability can’t be held back too long by a third world system. Singapore and China can wait and watch. Well, may be the tortoise is really getting ready to catch up after all !

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

India Vs China – the contrasting giants, as the economic power swings back to Asia

For the last few decades, I was always focused on the United States. Running an Indian IT company, life was almost US centric. Business in technology space can never afford to ignore the US. Most clients were in the US. Most funding came from the US. The technology business culture came from the US. And I had some of my best friends living there. I used to visit the US at least once every quarter to meet clients and to drum up new business. But I realize for the past one year, I have been to the US only once while on the other hand, I have traveled about six times to China and more within Asia. I would have never imagined this a few years back. Something surely has happened in global economy and it is so powerful it has touched my own life! In India and China, there is so much excitement in the air – it was like the way I always felt when I stepped into the Silicon Valley - a lot of positive energy, enthusiasm, and optimism hanging in the air. Now it is in the Asian air!

How did this sudden change come about? Well, it had to happen and it was inevitable! Six hundred years back, 75% of world’s GDP was produced by India and China. And then with a combination of Guns, Germs and Steel to start with, (Guns Germs and Steel: The Fate of Human Societies - By Jared Diamond, published by Norton and Company), and with the industrial revolution and colonization, the world was “conquered” by Europe and later more recently by the US. By 1950, only about 5% of world GDP was being produced by India and China. Now the pendulum is swinging back. It is predicted that in the next few decades, 50% of world GDP will come from “ChIndia”, the increasingly common new term. These are two nations of great opportunity today. They are the new engines that will power the world economic growth. No wonder everyone I meet in the US today looks at me as a person coming from the most exciting place on the planet. For a long time, the feeling has just been the reverse.

With its GDP galloping, China is ahead of India by a clean 15 years – they started liberalization that many years ahead. After Mao’s death, Deng Xia Ping, the ultimate “practical man” made many pragmatic changes. With his now famous pronouncement – “What matters is - does the cat catch the mouse, and not whether it is black or white in color”, led the country away from dogma and into practical wisdom. And, India is finding its feet too. In 1992, pushed to the wall, an unlikely combination of leaders pulled the nation in the right direction. But, what an interesting contrast today – the two economies!

I had visited China on and off over the past decade. But, in 2004, when Flextronics acquired Deccanet, the Bangalore IT venture I had co-founded, I was asked to be the “custodian” of the China design operation of the company. Ash Bhardwaj, the man who made Asia happen for Flex, told me, “please go and see China and our plants there. The factories are music in motion…man…” he would say. And music it was! The huge manufacturing plants of Flex, by then under the watch of Peter Tan, another wonderful Flex executive who welcomed me and arranged to show around his plants. The plants were very impressive - massive in size, each the size of many football fields, humming with machinery and activity, large teams of young men and women, producing for the world, practically round the clock. Then on, I spent quite some time in China - visiting Flex plants, trying to decide on new locations for the Design operations, putting together new teams, meeting potential clients and so on.

I was struck by the general momentum. Many Chinese friends I met treated me well. India and China had at best a very testy relationship over the past four decades. The 1962 war was always in the memory. Added to that, another touchy issue for India was China’s close ties with Pakistan - the “arch enemy” for India. But, I found the new generation of Chinese was looking through economic and not political lenses. They hardly seemed to relate to the hostile past. For them, India is a country with which they shared a lot of culture, religion and spiritualism in the past, a country with whom they traded throughout history. Now, India for most Chinese is a country of beautiful women, people who can sing and dance at will (Bollywood inspired), good at maths…. There is big respect for India’s achievements in IT. Due to the long break in relationship, India is a mysterious neighbor; a puzzle couched in an enigma. And, it would seem that an average Chinese accepts an Indian far more warmly than an average Indian would accept a Chinese. Hopefully, as time passes, things will warm up both ways.

…India and China are a study in contrast...

India is a services driven economy today, while China is manufacturing driven. Both are powered by cheap labor. Both are facing a dwindling share of agriculture in their economy and are involved in the huge task of redeploying the labor.

Demography: Being the most populous nations on the planet, they have huge demographic advantage compared to the developed economies which find the raising average age and a reducing work force a big challenge. China however is now staring at the problem of a population aging too fast. Its “One Child” policy, while putting break on population growth, has given raise to a unique “1+6” problem. With the increase in average life span, old folks live longer and consequently, an average young man/woman in China has to produce enough to support two parents, and four grandparents. Some feel China is aging much too faster than it is building prosperity. On the other hand, India is aging slower and will continue to have a dynamic young population for decades. For the next 50 years, India will have a much younger population than its neighbor. But in case of India, the real problem is its poor record on education and basic infrastructure. A large population of illiterates is a huge problem facing India. If you want numbers, try 350 million plus illiterates! Keeping the average age lower does not seem to be a big demographic advantage to me if a huge part of the population can’t read or write. This is especially troublesome in a modern economy that is tending to me more information driven.

The Drivers of growth: The Chinese economy is powered by the Govt. and people are joining in. By contrast, in India, the economy is powered by the people (read entrepreneurs) and the Govt. (sometimes reluctantly) joining in. The Govt. is effective in China in spite of certain level of corruption and all other criticisms. Things just happen! People try and align themselves to the Govt. policies and cash in on new opportunities. I was pleasantly surprised when a lady entrepreneur in China took me for dinner with some key Govt. officials and they were all talking the same language – I mean same theme. China seems to have studied the Singapore model well and seems to have scaled it up to a much larger level. Over the last decade, Shanghai is transformed from a shanty town to a promising “New York of the east”. When you travel around China, you are shown a new metro, a new maglev train, a new expressway, a new airport, a new this and a new that. Things happen at breakneck speed, because the Govt. need not win arguments over every step it wants to take unlike in a coalition ridden polity like India. And, there are no prolonged fights to acquire lands for new factory, or road – good or bad. The Political leadership in China is savvy, nationalistic and with a clear problem solving mindset. Most of the top leaders in china happen to be engineers from their top schools. Engineers are essentially problem solvers. Look at the contrast – Shanghai and Bangalore started talking about new airports 15 years back. Shanghai now has a 12 year old world-class airport. And Bangalore just decided where to locate the airport and started work on it. Our politicians and bureaucrats have been pulling at each other, unable to move.

So, have I fallen in love with China? No, not exactly. I just think there are a few things India could learn from China. As I would say, China can pick up a few ideas from India too.

While there is clear case for improving the governance, India has a very large participative democracy. We can call our leaders names, and throw them out of power when they seem seriously flawed. We have a fourth estate that is very active and powerful. If grave injustice is done, like in the case of Jessica Lal, it can really put the Govt., police and judiciary on the mat and get things corrected. India is one of the few countries in the world that has built democracy first and is then building Capitalism– a far more difficult option than the reverse. While China has a fairly homogeneous population, India has a very diverse one. Many languages, cultures, and religions divide us. And we have to carry the old baggage of caste, which with its history of 1000s of years, may take another fifty to hundred years to disappear. With these, disadvantages we have done remarkably well.

The driving force for India has been its entrepreneurial spirit which is extremely strong. A foreign Joint Venture partner of mine came to India on my invitation. I showed off India to him – basically Bangalore and Chennai - the cities, the people and the companies. At the end of the three day trip, his comment was: “the infrastructure here is far worse than” what he expected. He just couldn’t understand how such smart people can’t solve this problem. But on the other hand, the companies he visited were “far beyond what he expected to see. The quality of people and the systems and processes are very impressive.” It is the entrepreneur who is the driver in India. And, today, the entrepreneurs do not come form a small family of industrialists; on the contrary, they are sons of school teachers, farmers, middle class working families; they come from every where; from a wide cross section of people.

And, we are a young nation as far as entrepreneurship goes – it is just 14 years old, when we broke finally from a socialistic past to respect individual entrepreneurship. In a way, we were really reborn as a nation in 1992. Then on, what we have achieved “in spite” of our leadership and Govt. is remarkable. We are really building our nation bottom up – with a massive participation from people. It can be very powerful and sustainable.

Big opportunities in the junction between India and China…

So, India and China are moving from practically nothing to account for 50% of world’s GDP amongst them in just a few decades. The two economies are very complementary in many ways. There are a lot of opportunities in the junction between these two economies. There is a strong case to start engaging each other. We must complement each other and “exploit” each other’s strengths. This will lead to a lot of new wealth being created. And that will spread prosperity to large sections that are yet to taste the fruits of development and growth. China can be a big market place for India. If they tried a bit harder, Bollywood for example, renowned for its packaging of emotions can have the whole of China eating out of their hands. China has a very weak entertainment industry. Indian services industry, running into a serious labor crunch at home for engineering manpower can exploit the relatively better labor position in China. And Chinese product companies could bring their product culture to India. Emerging product companies of India can use the strong supply chain of Chinese. A complex PCB today may take a month to turn around by a hard pressed PCB maker in India while in China, they can deliver in a matter of days. Yes, the opportunities are immense!

Twenty years back, my dream was to start a company in the US. Today, nothing could be less exciting and more daunting than that. Eight years back, I didn’t give China a second look. Today I am visiting it with increasing frequency. We are surely living in changing times, with fast changing equations. US does continue to offer a lot. The level of innovation, the entrepreneurial energy, the academic institutions, business dynamics are all there to see. In US everything seems to have “happened” though; one needs to make something dreadfully innovative to capture attention there. But, there is something very simple and exciting about Asia today. You do almost anything well enough, and you will be rewarded.

The trade between India and China which was at a few hundred million $s a few years ago, stands at $ 20 Billion now and is expected to cross $ 40 Billion by 2010. These are big strides. Time to engage with China!

And in my own scheme of things, I am trying to do just that. Of the many new ventures I am currently involved in, two are in China. It is not easy. Language, culture, systems, ethics, everything is different. But it is interesting to learn; and it is not impossible. At the bottom of it all, engineers are engineers and businessmen think business. If you look hard and stop typecasting and generalizing, you can find good people everywhere.

Two economies, different in their own ways, fast emerging to occupy key positions in a new emerging world – positions they always deserved. Time to learn; and time to engage!